IS CLINTON SURGING? – AT 11:36 A.M. ET:  We stress that national polls at this stage are not indicative of future findings.  But a new poll indicates what I think many are sensing, that Donald Trump, after a fast run upward, has begun to stall.  From The Hill:

Hillary Clinton is leading Donald Trump by double digits in a hypothetical general election match-up, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll released Friday.

Forty-six percent of voters say they'll back Clinton, a Democrat, while 35 percent say they'll vote for Trump, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee. Nineteen percent said they won't vote for either candidate.

The poll surveyed 1,421 voters between May 30 and June 3.

Trump had been quickly gaining ground and in some cases overtaking Clinton in polls over the last few weeks. The most recent RealClearPolitics average, not including the Reuters poll, puts her up by just 1.5 points.

COMMENT:   Hard to know if the poll is accurate or an outlier.  However, I do sense that Trump's big mouth and boorish manner are having a negative effect on voters outside his base.  He has now said he has no intention of changing his manner, a big mistake.  The American people expect a presidential style in a presidential candidate.  Even Nixon could fake it. 

Yesterday, while the government was releasing devastating job-creation figures, which should be a major issue for Trump the businessman, he was talking about a personal legal case and attacking the judge.  That kind of misjudgment, and ego-based drifting, can cost Trump the election.  One of Trump's arguments is that he's a "big guy."  Big money.  Big thinking.  In fact, he often comes off as a petulant, thin-skinned little man, and someone has got to read the riot act to him.

June 4,  2016